Friday, August 13, 2010

Updating the Global Middle Class

This item is a fresh reminder of the shear power of the S curve.  Largely everyone on the Globe today is actually on the curve at some point or another. A huge mass of Chinesse are entering the full acceleration phase and will create a huge internal demand.  The same is also true for India and possibly now Brazil.

There is one practical effect.  The supply excess US currency denominated credit out there will be sponged up far faster than anticipated and the damage caused by the first global financial crisis will be quickly repaired outside the USA.

It is noteworthy that foreign investors are now focused on resources because of this.  The world needs a number of huge copper mines to be commissioned.  Little of that will also flow into the US because the states are mostly viewed unfriendly to mining at all.  To start with, most lands are still managed under the original 1877 mining law and is a huge problem.  The rest of the world has mostly learned to welcome major mining companies, not least because artisan miners pay no taxes and massively damage the environment.

An inevitable billion man middle class will need a ten fold increase in raw material availability.

AUGUST 11, 2010

The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries by Homi Kharas of the Brookings Institute Middle class definition used is those spending $10-100 per day. Some interesting things to notice is that the projection is for the world economy to get to 200 trillion in 2005 dollars by 2036 up from about 70 trillion now. Asia will be over half of the world economy. North America will go from about 26% now to about 12%, which will be the same as central and south America. By 2024-2030, the dominant share of the middle class economy from India and China and the rest of Asia will established according the Kharas forecast. It would then be a shift from the lower end of the middle class range to the upper part.

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